Smug Git
Arrogance Personified
Registered: Aug 2001
Location: Hilbert Space
Posts: 35669 |
I certainly thought that the French and Germans and Russians would fall into line, at worst abstaining, but the timetable and the tough talk from Bush and Rumsfeld in particular might make that too difficult for them to do. I still sort of think that they will, but the quality of the diplomacy from all sides has been execrable (and bearing in mind that the US and the UK are taking something of the role of supplicants in this, our failure is more damaging). Ideally, I think that most people would favour the French plan for longer inspections backed by troops, followed by direct military action if deemed necessary after that.
The Blair argument of 'the UN must vote with the US and the UK or make itself irrelevant' is pretty weak, given that it will also be irrelevant if it caves under that kind of pressure. If Blair was part of an event that broke up the UN, he would be villain number 1, I think. As it is, going in without UN approval may cost between 5 and 10 junior members of the government, and there is also a chance that he may lose the Leader of the House and also Clare Short (Overseas Development Minister, not an important post but seen as an important person by the party (she is also widely seen as an honest and forthright woman)).
The sadness for me is that if the US does become more unilateralist, that the UK will have to get tighter into Europe (the prospect of going with the US on a unilateralist track, against EU feeling, is not a very viable one). Which would suit Blair, of course, as he is a europhile (and hardly a natural ally of Bush, either, so that relationship could well become uncomfortable even if Blair survives the fall-out from whatever is to come).
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