Registered: Jan 2002
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hear that the US, UK and Spain are having a final push for diplomacy by meeting up for a summit in the Azores this weekend to solve the problems at the UN.

Hum........ if you don't agree with people, how is going to an island with the people that you know you agree with going to help exactly?

Sounds more like a 'Council of War' to me. Or am I just being ever so cynical?

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Bush said that he would push for the second resolution vote.

It looks like it would be better off not to, better not to have it go to the vote, then lose the vote.

Maybe that will be the outcome of this meeting, "after discussion with our allies........."


Now, the sanctions that just got lifted against Pakistan "Nothing to do with the war in Iraq".

Yeah right.

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From what is being reported in the US, Bush et al may forgoe the vote altogether

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They are reporting here that it may not go to vote, although the French did make some moves towards the UK position yesterday (although not enough, as they still don't want a second UN resolution that authorises violence).

If this was just a council of war, I am not sure that they would have invited the Spanish Prime Minister.

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The Wall Street Journal pointed out this quote from an Associated Press story:

"The British leader could face a revolt from members of his own Labor Party if he joins the United States in unilaterally launching war."

The WSJ wonders what APs definition of "unilateral" is. I am just wondering why AP would change the name of the Labour Party to the American spelling.

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Devilmoon they did it because they do not understand the notion of proper nouns.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Smug Git
If this was just a council of war, I am not sure that they would have invited the Spanish Prime Minister.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Phil
If America doesn't table a proposal Chirac will have NOTHING to block. He will effectively become nothing.

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The French making life in the EU hard for the British? That would be different.

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You know what I mean. And the Germans, too, obviously.

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I dont think they would at all.. We still hold a lot of the cards on that one you know.

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Registered: Nov 2001
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It would appear to an outsider (me) that politics in the within the EU and the relationship between the EU, NATO, the US,et al are going to be grotesquely complex no matter what the UN does next week. Add to that the "new European" entries to NATO(I know you guys don't like "New Europe" but it is a handy tag) and matters become even more complex.

In one poll of 50,000 responders 93% of Americans favored a voluntary American boycott of all identifiable French produts in the US. This has already started. This will surely bring French reprisals but I don't think they will greatly affect the US. One fourth of US trade with France is represented by Aircraft related products--mainly Airbus. I received four pictures of cemetaries in France with only American soldiers in them yesterday. The natives are restless, and the drums are booming re France.

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With regard to us having cards in our hand, we should have played them on the matter of CAP reform, then. Widening divisions between us and the franco-german club are risky for us in terms of our mission to hold up closer integration to the greatest extent that we can. All I am saying is that while it won't bother the US too much that France and Germany are pissed off with them, it can affect us more because we are more tied to them. Inflicting some pain back won't be much compensation, because we will still be hurting.

While the US may or may not wish to kick France and Germany after they have lost this battle (which in effect they were always going to lose if the US was prepared to ignore the UN as they said that they would), we certainly can't.

I don't think that this is a masterstroke or a disaster for both sides; both sides knew all along what the possible outcomes were. Whether or not history shows Blair to have acted according to Britain's best interests (I think that it probably will, although he has done enough other crap over his premiership to reduce any credit that this brings him), he is the one who can well end up hurting the most, I think. I don't think that the British public as a whole will miss Clare Short or Robin Cook, but I do think that his party may make life hard for him even if things go well, as expected, in the gulf. In common with you, I think that the typical upsurge in support for any war that we are involved in will come (and thus I wonder why the Daily Mirror is going as antiwar as it is, because they will be high and dry if war support materialises as has always happened before) but Blair is possibly still in trouble.

Time for the UK to start petitioning for entry to the US, I think.

Last edited by Smug Git on 03-15-2003 at 03:34 PM

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quote:

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Originally posted by oxsan
In one poll of 50,000 responders 93% of Americans favored a voluntary American boycott of all identifiable French produts in the US. This has already started. This will surely bring French reprisals but I don't think they will greatly affect the US

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personally I think any trade reprisals within G8 is sending out the worst possible signals at the worst possible time.

go free trade ! ra ra ra !

http://www.ild.org.pe/ - an impressive visionary IMO.

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I do not believe that there will be any dimunition in the Airbus related purchases. Those types of decisions are made for long term planning by Airlines that do their homework and would be very hesitant to alter their planning. Discussion of plans I heard last night were to attack Evian water sales, all wine and brandy sales and first tier "French source identified" product sales. There was much argument about Franchise boycott. Motel Six is French owned and is very profitable for the French but the individual Motels are franchised to Americans to operate under contract to the French. The question was did it hurt America to cause a bunch of American franchise owners to get out of business more than it hurt France to lose the franchise fee. You will be surprised I'm sure to learn that the general opinion was screw the American franchise owners---they should not have been doing business with the French. Feelings are running high against the French. There are many French products in the Chemical area, and some in pjarmaceuticals that the public will never know that they are buying French goods. Perfume and lingerie were offered as targets also. I was thinking of monitoring the lingerie market personally. Perfume has been going out of vogue for some time as a result of environmentalists claiming that perfume is an air pollutant.
Bear in mind too that the government has nothing to do with any of this---therefore it may be effective.

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Consumer boycotts often die down after a little while, though. And in a time of high unemployment, saying 'fuck the americans working for French companies' will seem a little harsh, too (the franchise holders must employ other people, and in any case French companies will have staff in the US).

If it keeps up, then that would be something different. I remember not that long ago that people were saying that the consumer boycott of fur products was going to really damage the high-end fashion seller who sold fur, but that didn't last forever either. I am not sure that consumers have the attention span.

In any case, I don't think that France is a great villian in this; they aren't supporting the US, but that is no crime (we can imagine situations where the US would not support France, even if this had not happened). And as far as UN vetos go, the US nor the UK can really criticise France without hypocrisy. If it doesn't blow over, it should. If it does, then it is just a blip in the balance sheet.

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quote:

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Go free trade! Ra! Ra!Ra!

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Unfortunately, it is difficult to hurt France without also hurting the UK.

Otherwise we would be doing it ourselves.

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Airbus should be safe, though; air travellers really want cheap (and hopefully safe) air travel and in any case, the deals in place can't really be broken, and by the time that airlines would get a choice, this will probably have been forgotten about. There is only Boeing and Airbus, really; the big thing that will impact Airbus' future (and therefore that of its competitor Boeing) will be the success of the new Airbus superjumbo. If, longerm, the US did stop buying Airbus, then European consumers might well do the same thing to Boeing; both Europe and the US are big markets for airlines (in the EU now, the budget travellers are getting more successful every year; the two main ones here are posting increased profits even though the traditional airlines are failing). The best solution for airline passengers, in terms of safety and price, is that the 'big two' manufacturers are competing with each other, it would seem to me. Airbus is the European consortium (I think that the wings are british made), so it is more than just the French.

The big fall in US tourism will probably come (judging from the past) from the reluctance of US tourists to fly, rather than from boycotts, I would think (even though international flights are probably safer from terrorism than domestic ones). We have certainly suffered a big drop-off in US tourism and we have been behind the US all the way through this thing.

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quote:

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Originally posted by oxsan
A public organized boycott of a voluntary nature is the very essence of free trade.

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Sources of anti French sentiment

A radio talk show host named Mark Davis in the Dallas area and
who has had three call in programs on this subject this last week.

Ny number two daughter who is a hard ball conservative and lives two blocks from Natalie Maines mother and knows her.

Fox News interviews

My e-mail in box where some of my old business buddies rack up stories of French hatred with great relish

Dallas TV news which had an interview with a restauranteur who was pouring French wine down the gutter
(I actually think this one was rigged because I only saw a bottle or two go down the drain and I didn't see the label on that)

My Number one daughter who is a liberal professor of research and statistics at a mid-atlantic University.

Them is the main places. Mug told me on the phone that he heard the same reports on the Dixie Chicks in Minneapolis. Today I watched Natalie Maines apologize on TV (I don't know what channel).

Like that.

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