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Paint CHiPs
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Zogby: Kerry Will Win the Election

Was going to put this in my polls thread, but thought maybe it warrants an independent look.

John Zogby, part pollster and part showman, has written an interesting piece. His conclusion: John Kerry will win the election.

That's a pretty bold thing for a pollster to say, and right now anyway, Zogby is one of the top (paid) pollsters in the country, up there with Rasmussen. A couple of things about Zogby though, he's definitly kind of the Rupert Murdoch of pollsters. His job seems less accuracy and more selling his results to media outlets (so it helps if they look flashy). But, he IS accurate, to a degree; he kind of has to be to stay in business. Second, his methodology isn't so hot; though my critique has generally been that he FAILS to predict upsets too often; he didn't do well predicted the Edwards surge, for insance.

Zogby has been leaning this way for awhile now, I'd say. Mostly based not on Kerry at all, but based on the president's approval and re-elect numbers and how they compare to historical precedent (the answer is: very badly). Kerry isn't doing great himself lately, but, as Zogby sees it, he doesn't really have to be. He can just be a stand-in for "opponent" and still squeak it out. The other thing that Zogby is seeing is that the polarization of the race makes it so the results are basically frozen 50/50. That, he argues, is a BAD sign for the president, because it'll be near impossible for him to take away any of Kerry's supporters, and historically, those few undecideds and lean voters will break against the incumbent, nearly irregardless of what the Bush Reelection Machine tries to do with them (that's just the way they always are this late in the game in this sort of climate). Finally, this election, he argues, has become something out of the realm of Bush's control. He spent 40 million dollars in ad spending in the last two months alone, and they didn't make a DENT (he got a slight bounce and then it settled right back), largely because all his ads were trumped by a constant barrage of media coverage on outside events that he could neither control or effectively spin. So, if you take that as a complete picture, Zogby argues, this race will likely stay basically frozen, Kerry will come on strong at the end, the remaining undecideds will break his way as they are wont to do, and Kerry will end up with the W.

Anyway, an interesting take, and pretty close to my scenario for why I think Kerry has a damn good shot at winning. I'd add a few things to the scenario that I think may make a difference, including GOTV efforts which will be huge in places like Philly, Detroit, St. Louis, etc, an energized, mobilized, and effective Democratic (or even anti-Bush as a whole) base compared to a lacksadasical pro-Bush one, and bits and pieces of other stuff. But, in my mind anyway, Zogby has it basically right.

Here's his piece:



The Election Is Kerry's To Lose


By John Zogby


I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.

Have you recovered from the shock? Is this guy nuts? Kerry's performance of late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them. Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn't, it will be because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion:

First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) (editors note: these numbers have since been updated and shown an even more pessimistic picture for Bush) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race, and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader. Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected - compared with 51% who say it is time for someone new.

In that same poll, Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign. Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.

Third, the economy is still the top issue for voters - 30% cite it. While the war in Iraq had been only noted by 11% as the top issue in March, it jumped to 20% in our April poll as a result of bad war news dominating the news agenda. The third issue is the war on terrorism. Among those who cited the economy, Kerry leads the President 54% to 35%. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Kerry's lead is 57% to 36%. This, of course, is balanced by the 64% to 30% margin that the President holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism. These top issues are not likely to go away. And arguably, there is greater and growing intensity on the part of those who oppose and want to defeat Bush.

The President's problem is further compounded by the fact that he is now at the mercy of situations that are out of his control. While the economy is improving, voters historically do not look at indicators that measure trillions and billions of dollars. Instead, their focus is on hundreds and thousands of dollars. In this regard, there is less concern for increases in productivity and gross domestic product and more regard for growth in jobs and maintaining of health benefits. Just 12 years ago, the economy had begun its turnaround in the fourth quarter of 1991 and was in full recovery by spring 1992 - yet voters gave the President's father only 38% of the vote because it was all about "the economy, stupid."

The same holds true for Iraq. Will the United States actually be able to leave by June 30? Will Iraq be better off by then? Will the US be able to transfer power to a legitimate and unifying authority? Will the lives lost by the US and its allies be judged as the worth the final product? It is difficult to see how the President grabs control of this situation.

Finally, if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Governor Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries. All through 2003, Kerry's campaign lacked a focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and too willing to discuss a range of possibly positions on every issue. It is often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign, if a candidate can't spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble grabbing the attention of voters. By early 2004, as Democratic voters in Iowa and elsewhere concluded that President Bush could be defeated, they found Governor Howard Dean's message to be too hot and began to give Kerry another look. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: "I'm a veteran", "I have the experience", and "I can win". His timing caused him to come on strong at the perfect time. As one former his Vietnam War colleague of told a television correspondent in Iowa: "John always knows when his homework is due."

Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the President's side).

We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose.

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Old Post 05-10-2004 09:04 PM
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Trenchant_Troll
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Get a helmet, John.

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Old Post 05-10-2004 09:06 PM
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Smug Git
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I still think that Bush will win. But I don't know anything, really. A pity that I can't stand for president, as I appear to be well-suited for it, so long as I don't learn too much.

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Old Post 05-10-2004 09:08 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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quote:
Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
Get a helmet, John.


Just out of curiosity, tittie, why is it that you've been predicting a landslide victory for Bush? I think that's possible, just not at all likely considering the data and the possible outcome scenarios. Do you know something I don't or are you just going on intuition?

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Old Post 05-10-2004 09:08 PM
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Nutrimentia
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I just finished reading that myself. Personally I think its futile to make predictions this far out, but its worth going on record this way just in case Kerry does win. Lots of cred coming from an early call. His points about Kerry showing up on finals day is worth noting.

Personally (and utterly unrelated by topic but related by their proximity at realclearpolitics), I liked this one about Rumsfeld better. I remember reading about Rummy's managerial style pre-9/11 and pre-Iraq war. Maybe its time to pay the piper?

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Old Post 05-11-2004 03:14 AM
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Trenchant_Troll
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quote:
Originally posted by Paint CHiPs
Just out of curiosity, tittie, why is it that you've been predicting a landslide victory for Bush? I think that's possible, just not at all likely considering the data and the possible outcome scenarios. Do you know something I don't or are you just going on intuition?


I talk to a alot of people, regular everyday people. People who don't talk to pollsters and the press. However, if you want an interesting poll, how about the one that said a vast majority of Americans across party lines say Rumsfeld should stay. There are little hints out there for those willing to shun the spoon and look.

Am I right? Maybe not. We'll see, won't we?

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Old Post 05-11-2004 12:31 PM
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Nutrimentia
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i wonder how many "a alot" of people is, and what percentage of those are outside your ideological realm?

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Old Post 05-11-2004 01:32 PM
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Trenchant_Troll
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Let's see, I deal with the whole spectrum, from hippies to right-wingers, from yellow-dog Dems to moderate Dems. From blue collar to white collar. Name it. I am not trying to say that I am some scientific meter, I am simply telling you what has formed my view.

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Old Post 05-11-2004 01:49 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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quote:
Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
I talk to a alot of people, regular everyday people. People who don't talk to pollsters and the press. However, if you want an interesting poll, how about the one that said a vast majority of Americans across party lines say Rumsfeld should stay. There are little hints out there for those willing to shun the spoon and look.

Am I right? Maybe not. We'll see, won't we?



Right about what? You're still not making a case, you're just being ambiguous and refusing to clarify what it is exactly you're "predicting", so that come November, you can point to all these posts and say "See? I told you so! When I said "we'll see," this is EXACTLY what I meant!"

First of all, sort of by definition, there is no talking to pollsters vs not talking to pollsters divide. Well, that may not be entirely true, but you're going to have to put some work into making that case for me before I'm willing to buy it instead of hanging it on some hookey "I talk to real people with real concerns" populist rhetoric. If your contention is that polls are not accurately representing American opinion because only a certain kind of person responds to pollsters, then say so (but, when you do make that case, I'd be careful not to then in the next breath point to polls by those same pollsters that you claim provide evidence of your other theories).

As far as the poll on Rumsfeld goes, I don't know how indicative that is of broad-based support of Bush. Hell, *I* don't think Rumsfeld should resign over this, and I'm sure as hell not a Bush voter. If for some reason the methodology and polling philosophy of that question is valid, than so to would be the numbers from the very same poll showing only 46% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing (or the many other results from that same poll). I tend to think that the question "Should Rumsfeld resign" is a lot less indicative of how people will vote than the question "how will you vote?" Maybe that's just me.

I think that a case can be made for Bush in the poll data that's out now. The Rumsfeld one you mentioned, the results of the Clarke/Rice comparison, the fact that the War on Terror is the #3 issue (behind economy and Iraq) and Bush still has a wide lead on it (though not on economy and Iraq, which he loses to Kerry), the fact that people are gaining confidence in the economy, the character numbers (i.e. results showing which person they think is more likely to do what they say, etc). If you want to make that case, that could be an interesting thread, but again, I would say that you're still ignoring the more concrete and direct results, the one that say "I will or will not vote for Bush", and whatnot. If there's some reason why THOSE results are wrong but the ones YOU mention are right, I'd be interested in hearing it.

If the election were held tomorrow, Kerry would win. However, it's not at all of a stretch and requires no real insight to say "a lot of things can change between now and November," and a slight Bush win is certainly one of two strong possiblities (the other being a slight Kerry win, the stronger of the two at this point - other possibilities of course include a landslide either way, a tie, etc). I could also get into a discussion about why your "intuition" based on the people you personally involve yourself with might be less reliable than, say, nationwide polling or impressions of people with a lot broader range of people they involve themselves in, it more strategically imperative areas. But, the point is, to even begin those conversations, you gotta start being specific everytime you bring this up. If not, what's the point?

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Old Post 05-11-2004 08:40 PM
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Trenchant_Troll
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If, woulda, coulda, blah, blah, blah...Polls are and always have been a means by which any given side can illustrate a desired result. I have told you exactly what I predict (based on my own information gathering system that I like to call listening to people), but I'll do it again for your benefit and in a concise manner that seems to elude some of you pontificating Euro windbags:

Bush will win by a landslide. Why? Because Americans have watched the Left systematically do everything in their power to politicize this war and undermine the war effort. That's what I am hearing, and from some pretty unlikely quarters I might add. Take it or leave it, but that is what I am using to formulate my opinion.

Next.

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Old Post 05-11-2004 09:33 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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Fair enough. Locked in. One vote for slight win by Kerry, for me, one vote for Bush landslide, for TT.

I should add that most people I've met don't view war as some sacred thing. Some do, sure, but most don't, in my experience.

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Old Post 05-11-2004 09:40 PM
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Smug Git
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War is pretty much entirely political, if you ask me.

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Old Post 05-11-2004 09:58 PM
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Trenchant_Troll
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Paint, there is nothing sacred about war. But there IS a unfortunately time and a place for it. As time passes I believe that you will see that this is indeed one of those unfortunate times. This is not over by a long shot.

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Old Post 05-11-2004 10:14 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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Related article. Mark Mellman is a Democratic pollster, but a legendary one. The independent polls you see are generally less accurate than the partisan polling that the candidates get directly (whose results are never public). For those that dismiss out of hand the polls at this stage, this article is at least good for putting them in a historical context. What is the historical context? John Kerry is doing better than any challenger to an incumbent since the advent of modern polling (60+ years).




Kerry’s legendary lead

“So Mark, how well is John Kerry doing?”

“Better than any challenger in modern times has ever been doing at this point in this race!”

“You wouldn’t know that from the press spin.”

“Like my mother always said (quoting Santayana), those who do not remember the past are doomed to relive it.”

How does one define “doing well” in the context of polling? As I have written before, polling numbers have no inherent meaning. They only derive meaning from comparisons across time or space.

In the latest Gallup poll, John Kerry leads George Bush by five points among registered voters when Nader is included, and by 6 when he is not. How do we know just how strong a showing that is for Kerry?

Looking at the history of presidential races is one approach. No challenger has ever done as well against an elected incumbent at this point in the cycle. Every incumbent who won re-election had a double-digit lead over his challenger at this stage. Lyndon Johnson led Barry Goldwater by 59 points in the spring of ’64. Bill Clinton led Bob Dole by 14 points, Ronald Reagan led Walter Mondale by 17 and Richard Nixon was ahead of George McGovern by 11.

Of course, some incumbents who went on to lose were doing better than Bush is today. The president’s father led Clinton by six points at this stage but was beaten anyway.

Thus, Kerry’s margin is 11 points better than was Bill Clinton’s at a similar point in time against Bush I. What, you haven’t seen that “Kerry stronger than Clinton” headline?

Only one challenger has ever done as well against an incumbent at a comparable time in the election cycle. Jimmy Carter had a similar six-point lead over the unelected and subsequently defeated Gerald Ford. The nation had just been through the long national nightmare of Watergate and Ford had pardoned Nixon.

I keep referring to “this point in time.” Why? Because campaigns are events that unfold over the course of the cycle. Most of the movement in polls comes in the aftermath of the conventions. Incumbent presidents are the best-known politicians around. Challengers are usually not as well known. Kerry is no exception. Today, many voters are expressing a preference for the Kerry they don’t know over the Bush they do. That is striking. Often, unpopular politicians still lead at this stage.

In September 2000, Bob Torricelli (D) led his opponent by a four-point margin. Just 14 percent of New Jersey voters had a favorable impression of the senator, who had been dragged through the mud by then, while 34 percent were unfavorable. You did not hear too many analysts saying, “Wow, that Torricelli is strong. A year of horrific press and he still leads his opponent.” A few weeks later, rightly convinced he could not win, Torricelli withdrew. As his opponent became better known, the incumbent was likely to suffer.

Indeed, in most races involving incumbents the critical number is not the margin over the challenger but rather the percentage of the vote the incumbent is garnering. As sophisticated poll-watchers know, few incumbents get more votes on Election Day than they do in the last polls. Voters who are undecided at the end break overwhelmingly to the challenger.

With just 44 percent support in both of the two most recent polls, Bush is in real and serious trouble.

Democrats should not be popping champagne corks yet, but our party should be delighted that Kerry is turning in a stronger performance to date than any challenger since the advent of modern polling.

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Old Post 05-12-2004 08:40 PM
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Smug Git
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Wasn't Torricelli's race in 2002, rather than 2000, when he was replaced (rather dubiously) by Lautenberg on the ballot?

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Old Post 05-12-2004 08:45 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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Yes, I think so.

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Old Post 05-12-2004 10:11 PM
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DevilMoon
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I don't know if you posted this Paint:

quote:
Published Sunday, May 2, 2004
Kerry Struggling to Find a Theme, Democrats Fear

By ADAM NAGOURNEY
New York Times

WASHINGTON, May 1 Two months after Senator John Kerry effectively captured the Democratic presidential nomination, party officials say his campaign is being regularly outmaneuvered by the White House as it struggles to find a focus and to make the transition from the primaries to the fight with President Bush.

Even while expressing confidence about Mr. Kerry's prospects, Democratic Party officials said they were concerned about what they described as his trouble in settling on a defining theme for his candidacy, the pace of his advertising and his progress in setting up field organizations in battleground states.

"George Bush has had three of the worst months of his presidency, but they are stuck and they've got to move past this moment," said Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign.

While Ms. Brazile said she thought Mr. Kerry had the time, the political skill and the money to defeat what many Democrats described as a highly vulnerable president, she said, "This is a very crucial moment in the campaign."

Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, one of Mr. Kerry's rivals for the nomination and a potential running mate, has told aides over the past two weeks that he is concerned by signs of trouble in

Mr. Kerry's campaign, advisers said. Mr. Edwards disputed that characterization of his views in an interview on Saturday, saying he thought Mr. Kerry was running a "strong campaign."

In Ohio, the state that strategists for Mr. Kerry and Mr. Bush view as perhaps the most critical battleground, Mr. Kerry has yet to hire a state director or open a campaign office. His operation is relying so far on the work of committees working independent of the Kerry campaign.

By contrast, Mr. Bush appointed an Ohio state director on Jan. 1, and opened a headquarters in Columbus, staffed by 13 people, three months ago, his aides said.

The Kerry campaign has yet to open its own full-fledged campaign "war room" staffed with researchers, tacticians and press aides to deal with Republican attacks and systematically marshal surrogates to make Mr. Kerry's case.

In one example of how this has hindered the operation, Mr. Kerry's aides fielded complaints from donors and party leaders this week when the candidate went on television to respond, in a contentious interview, to questions about his anti-Vietnam activities 30 years ago.

Mr. Bush's campaign opened its war room in early March, and it has pumped out a steady barrage of attacks and information about Mr. Kerry's record that Democrats said had blocked Mr. Kerry's attempt to make the election a referendum on Mr. Bush.

Mr. Kerry has yet to unveil a long-promised biographical advertisement highlighting his war record that Democrats urged him to broadcast as soon as possible as a rebuttal to Mr. Bush's $50 million crush of advertisements. Democrats outside the campaign blamed the ouster of a senior media adviser in March for the delay.

Mr. Kerry's advisers denied that and said the biography advertisement would start next week, saying that had always been their plan.

For many Democrats, Mr. Kerry's single biggest difficulty was what they described as his continuing search for a defining theme for his candidacy typically one of the most urgent tasks of any presidential candidate.

Last week, after completing the most in-depth poll of his campaign, Mr. Kerry unveiled yet another theme for his candidacy: "Together, we can build a stronger America." It was, by the count of one aide, the sixth message Mr. Kerry has rolled out since he announced his candidacy nearly 18 months ago.

"We need to be honest with ourselves: Our candidate is not one who's good with a 30-second sound bite," said Representative Harold E. Ford Jr. of Tennessee, co-chairman of Mr. Kerry's campaign. "He is very thoughtful and it takes him a while to say things."

Mr. Kerry's aides and some Democrats outside the campaign described the concerns as overstated, and said that any drift that might be taking place now would have little meaning next fall. They said Mr. Kerry had used the spring to raise money and that a war room and offices in Ohio and other battleground states would open shortly. And they noted that independent organizations had picked up a lot of the slack so far with big expenditures on television advertising and get-out-the-vote operations.

"This campaign has got six months to go," said Steve Elmendorf, a deputy campaign manager. "He goes out daily and talks about his vision for the country and his vision for the future. You have to take the long view here. You're not going to win every day, and you're not going to win every week."

Mr. Elmendorf added, "I know people are feeling anxious timing-wise, but you have to build a national campaign."

Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democrat of Delaware, said Mr. Kerry was "doing better than he's perceived to be doing," adding, "He's starting to get his sea legs."

"I'm not worried I really am not," Mr. Biden said.

"Democrats are so, so, so hungry to defeat Bush that they get so up when things look up and get so down when things look down."

But other Democrats, even while cheered by polls showing that Mr. Bush appeared vulnerable, noted that Mr. Bush was moving aggressively to discredit Mr. Kerry now so that he would be diminished as a candidate by the fall campaign. They said that Mr. Kerry needed to fight that.

"What is the message today where is the message discipline today?" said one senior Democratic official, who refused to speak by name about the campaign. "Why don't we have people in these 18 states?"

Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania, a former Democratic chairman, said that Mr. Kerry could defeat Mr. Bush if he began laying out a serious case now. He said Mr. Kerry could not wait until the fall.

"If he hasn't established himself as a plausible alternative, people will have tuned out," Mr. Rendell said.

The growing pains reflect in part an organization that, aside from the two senior media consultants Bob Shrum and Mike Donilon has little experience in running presidential campaigns. Mr. Kerry's campaign has been hindered, some aides said, by a turnover in staff members and internal bickering, albeit nowhere near the level that occurred in the campaign last fall.

At a recent meeting of senior staff members, Democrats said, Mr. Kerry's aides became entangled in a lengthy debate over what might seem to be a less than urgent issue: whether they should send a Democratic operative to Bush rallies dressed as Pinocchio, a chicken or a mule, to illustrate various lines of attacks Democrats want to use against Mr. Bush. (They say they want to portray him as a liar, a draft avoider and stubborn.)
But more fundamentally, it underlines what many Democrats have long said has been Mr. Kerry's continuing difficulty this year to present a unifying theme for his candidacy.

In the primaries, Mr. Kerry's biography was his message, as he argued that his experience as a Vietnam veteran made him the strongest opponent to Mr. Bush. That argument for his election evaporated the moment the race ended, Democrats said, and Mr. Kerry has yet to adjust to the new electoral terrain.

Mr. Kerry's advisers disputed that, saying that Mr. Kerry was laying out a clear case for his candidacy as he traveled across the country.

"Anybody who thinks that John Kerry doesn't have a message needs to get out of Washington, D.C.," said Stephanie Cutter, a senior aide, adding,
"America is fully open and receptive to the message of putting jobs first and getting America back on track."

Mr. Bush began talking about himself as a "compassionate conservative" in his announcement of his candidacy 18 months before Election Day 2000. This time, Democrats said, Mr. Bush appears to have settled again on an early theme.

"Bush's message is clear," said Carter Eskew, who was a senior adviser to Mr. Gore. "His message is a steady leader and Kerry's a flip-flopper."

Mr. Kerry's predicament has been complicated by the fact that there was no lull after the primary battle. Instead, he faced the twin tasks of building a general election campaign apparatus and dealing with a White House that had spent a year raising money, investigating Mr. Kerry's record and hiring staff members to prepare for this moment.

The result, some Democrats said, has often been a mismatch. In an episode this week that distressed some of Mr. Kerry's strongest supporters, Mr. Kerry was put in a position where he appeared to be defending his Vietnam War record, in a dispute over whether he had thrown away medals in an antiwar protest.

"This Vietnam thing I'm lost at how you can lose that," said one Democratic member of Congress, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "You go to Vietnam, you're carrying around shrapnel, and you're seen as somehow not telling the truth. I am scratching my head in bewilderment."

Ms. Cutter, though, scoffed at the suggestion that the Kerry campaign was being outmaneuvered by the White House.

"Haven't we run around them too?" Ms. Cutter said. "For every story that George Bush is in, John Kerry is in it, too. When you're running against the power of the White House and all that money, where we are is a pretty impressive feat.
"And we're just starting."

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Old Post 05-12-2004 10:19 PM
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Dingle
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Old Post 05-12-2004 11:19 PM
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Dingle
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quote:
Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
the Left systematically do everything in their power to politicize this war


i'd have to say the right is at least equally as guilty. A certain president who landed on an aircraft carrier to proclaim a victory on international tv comes to mind.

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