Paint CHiPs
Viva Le Me
Registered: Jul 2000
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The VP Race
We haven't had a thread about this in awhile, as there hasn't been much movement on it in awhile, but, being as how this is one of the best political parlour games out there, and being as how the Kerry camp has been leaking that they'll make their selection BEFORE the convention (i.e. June, probably early June), I thought I would post this.
The summary is this. Kerry's short list is, according to sources (take that as you will), thus:
Dick Gephardt - MO
John Edwards - NC
Wesley Clark - AR
Bob Graham - FL
Tom Vilsack - IA
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry is focusing on five potential running mates, including former party nomination rivals Senator John Edwards and retired General Wesley Clark, according to campaign and party officials familiar with the selection process.
The others under consideration are Representative Richard Gephardt of St. Louis, Senator Bob Graham of Florida -- both of whom also made bids for the Democratic nomination -- and Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said. Kerry won't name his choice until next month, the officials said.
``With the exception of Vilsack, this is a very safe, predictable list,'' said Stu Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. ``You have here a number of people who ran for president, who have already been vetted, who are something of known quantities.''
Naming a running mate before the Democratic National Convention in July would add another fund raiser to the campaign and another voice to promote Kerry's proposals and criticize President George W. Bush. Vice President Dick Cheney has been raising money for the Republican re-election effort and has been using speeches to say voters should have ``ample reason to doubt'' Kerry's judgment on national security.
`Private Process'
Kerry has refused to say who he is considering and his campaign declined to comment on the selection process.
``This is a private process,'' Kerry spokesman Chad Clanton said. ``When Senator Kerry has an announcement to make, he'll make it.''
Edwards, 50, emerged as Kerry's main rival for the Democratic nomination once party primaries and caucuses got under way in January. He and Clark, 59, were the only two candidates to win a primary as active candidates. Former Governor Howard Dean won his home state primary after he had dropped out of the race.
Kerry, 60, a four-term senator from Massachusetts, secured the Democratic nomination March 16, after winning all but three of the caucuses and primaries held at that point. Edwards dropped out of the race the week before and was the last of the major challengers to Kerry.
Gephardt, 63, and Graham, 67, come from states that Bush won in the 2000 president election by a margin of 4 percent or less. Vilsack, 53, would give Kerry an edge in Iowa, which Democrat Al Gore won in 2000 by less than 1 percent. Edwards represents North Carolina in the Senate and Clark is from Arkansas. Either man might may help Kerry in the South, which Bush swept in the last election.
No Comment
Edwards's spokeswoman Kim Rubey said that Edwards in the past has said that he'll do everything he can to help elect Kerry and that's still true. She declined to comment further.
``I've said I'm not interested,'' Clark said when asked during a conference call with reporters about whether he would consider being the vice presidential nominee. ``I've also said that John has a confidential process on this and I respect the privacy of that process.''
``Any comment relating to this, the governor feels most appropriate that it come exclusively from Senator Kerry's campaign,'' said Matt Paul, a Vilsack spokesman.
Graham declined to answer questions about the vice presidential nomination, saying ``Those are questions that should be directed to the Kerry campaign.''
Representatives of Gephardt didn't immediately return calls for comment.
Campaign Help
All five of the potential running mates have campaigned with Kerry or made appearances on his behalf. They also have been raising money for the campaign through e-mail solicitations to supports or by appeals at fund-raising events.
Kerry has also hired staff from his former rivals. For example, Steve Elmendorf, who worked for 20 years as Gephardt's top political adviser, is Kerry's deputy campaign manager.
Miles Lackey, Edwards' political director, has been traveling with Kerry this week. Yesterday, he said, ``I'm just here to observe'' when asked by reporters why he was with Kerry.
Edwards, a native of South Carolina, has represented North Carolina in the Senate since 1999. He has said he won't seek re- election.
After a 20-year career as a personal injury attorney, Edwards ranked in 2000 as the 23rd wealthiest member of Congress, according to Roll Call, a Capitol Hill newspaper, with a fortune estimated at $13.6 million.
Taxes and Jobs
Edwards campaigned on a pledge to reduce the economic gap between rich and poor in the U.S., using the phrase ``there are two Americas, one for people who get everything they need every single day, and one for everybody else.''
He favored renegotiating trade agreements that he said were driving the shift of U.S. jobs overseas to countries with looser labor and environmental standards. Like Kerry, he favored repealing Bush's tax cuts for those making $200,000 or more a year.
In the nomination contests, Edwards won South Carolina and was second in Iowa, Wisconsin to Kerry and second in Oklahoma to Clark. He ended his campaign on March 3.
Clark endorsed Kerry shortly after dropping out of the Democratic race on Feb. 11. He announced his candidacy in September, his first try for elected office and months after the other campaigns had started.
Still, his ability to raise political donations in the last three months of 2003 was exceeded only by Dean, then the leading candidate in polls. During the primary season, Clark's only win came in Oklahoma.
Military Career
Clark retired as a four-star general in 2000 after 34 years of military service. He graduated first in his class at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, was a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford University and a White House fellow in the Republican administration of President Gerald Ford. He received the Silver Star and Purple Heart in Vietnam, and was the first of his West Point classmates to command a battalion.
As the supreme commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization from 1997 to 2000, Clark directed a bombing campaign that evicted Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic's troops from Kosovo.
After his retirement, Clark worked as an investment banker for Little Rock-based Stephens Group Inc. and was a consultant for Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Donna Brazile, Gore's campaign manager in 2000, said the deteriorating situation in Iraq boosts Clark's chances.
``He's had a consistent position on the war, opposing it under the conditions and circumstances in which it was launched,'' Brazile said. ``He looks like a sage when you reflect back on what he said and where we are.''
Swing State Representative
Gephardt is a 14-term member of the House, winning his first congressional election in 1976 after serving as a St. Louis alderman. He rose to become the Democratic leader in the chamber in 1989 and sought the party presidential nomination in 1988, which was won by former Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis.
In this year's race, Gephardt was backed by 21 unions including the International Brotherhood of Teamsters. He was an early favorite in polls in Iowa, which held the first contest in the party nomination race. Gephardt place fourth, behind Kerry, Edwards and Dean, and withdrew from the race. He also announced he would retire from politics when his term ends next year.
Among the issues he championed in Congress and in the campaign were universal health care, more spending for public education and protecting U.S. workers from the effects of open trade policies. He also favored repealing all of the $1.7 trillion in tax cuts enacted under Bush.
Statewide Appeal
Bush won Missouri by 3.4 percent in 2000. State Democratic Party chairwoman May Scheve said Gephardt's suburban St. Louis district often swings the vote in statewide elections.
``He has good appeal statewide, but if this election is as close as it is predicted to be, he obviously helps carry his own district, and if he helps carry his own district by a significant margin, he likely delivers the state,'' Scheve said.
Graham is completing his third six-year term in the U.S. Senate. He abandoning his presidential campaign in October 2003, long before the first delegates were chosen, because of his inability to raise money or register in national poll. He also announced he would not seek re-election to the Senate.
He has never lost a statewide election in Florida, which Bush won in 2000 by 537 votes after the U.S. Supreme Court halted a recount of ballots. Graham also served two four-year terms as governor and 12 years in the state Legislature.
In the Senate, Graham was chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, taking the seat three months after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. He highlighted his expertise on terrorism the centerpiece of his presidential campaign. Graham voted against the 2002 resolution authorizing the Iraq War, but supported the 1991 Persian Gulf War.
Graham introduced Kerry at two fundraising events last month. Kerry told Graham in Tampa, ``You've been one of the great governors of the United States of America and you've been one of the great leaders in the Senate.''
Vilsack, a trial lawyer, began his political career in 1987 when he became mayor of the Iowan city of Mount Pleasant after the previous mayor was murdered.
He was elected Iowa's governor in 1998, the first Democratic governor in more than 30 years and reelected in 2002, according to his official biography. He is originally from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, where he was orphaned at birth.
Vilsack is chairman of the Democratic Governors' Association, which represents 22 of the country's state chief executives. His wife, Christie, supported Kerry during the run-up to the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses. Vilsack as head of the state party organization, didn't publicly endorse anyone.
``He obviously has appeal not only in Iowa, but likely in Minnesota and Wisconsin too,'' Rothenberg said of the Iowa governor. ``Those are all states Gore narrowly won in 2000 - a Vilsack pick would be part of a `hold your base' strategy.''
The article is right to call this a basically safe strategy. Gephardt has been on the assumed short list since Day 1, and is by far the most likely (Edwards has been on the short list since early on as well, though I still have a hunch it won't be him). Bill Richardson was early on thought to be a favorite, but has since been "passed over", at least according to the media and pundits (for any number of reasons, not the least of which is that sources close to him say he's really eyeing a run of his own in 2008 should Kerry lose). Clark has been sort of assumed to be hovering around, but people have a pretty wide range of opinions on whether or not he'll be picked (I argued vehemently for awhile that there wasn't a chance in hell, but the way things are shaping up, I've backed off that some, and think he would make some sense). Vilsack has replaced Richardson as the lesser known name on the list, and he's the dark horse candidate that a lot of people think may actually be the pick, including myself (I still think Gep is most likely, but Vilsack after that). I lived in Iowa when he won in 2000, and he seems a very effective politician, and very popular, even among Republicans in that state (sort of like Ed Rendell in PA). He also has good name recognition in the Midwest due to his party leadership there, and would probably help (as the article mentioned) secure MN and WI, probably wouldn't hurt any in MO, OH, and PA as well. Of the short list, I'm probably leaning towards Vilsack in terms of who I think might be the wisest.
I was sort of surprised to see Graham's name come up again. He had been considered an early favorite but as Florida has started seeming more and more out of reach and the battleground has shifted to the industrial states, his name started coming up less and less and, until this article, I hadn't heard it bandied about on the short list for some time. I suspect that Kerry's camp may know something about him that we don't (i.e. that his nationwide appeal is high or he is likely to bring Florida into a few points).
Notable absence on this list is Evan Bayh, who has been considered by many to be a short list contender, but who I always thought had his name spread around mostly as a tactic to scare the progressive crowd a bit, shake them up, so that people like Gep and Vilsack will seem more acceptable to them (I hear a lot of progressives who DESPISE the thought of Gep on the ticket, but who suddenly considered him acceptable when Bayh's name started getting bandied about.
Here's some analysis that I think I agree with from an inside source.
quote:
The Democratic Party seems to be currently split in at least three factions -- the Dean/Gore people, the Clintonites, and the Kerry crew. Word is that to rally the party 100 percent behind Kerry, he can't nominate a Veep with presidential ambitions. The Clinton people obviously want a spot open for Hillary in 2008 or 2012, while the Dean/Gore people have their own plans for the president's office (probably including a guy named "Dean"). Then there's several governors with presidential aspirations in key battleground states -- NM's Bill Richardson, PA's Ed Rendell, and, stretching the definition of "key battleground state", there's Mark Warner in Virginia.
So the word is that Kerry's veep choice has to be a sort of Cheney -- someone who will retire once Kerry leaves office. That way, all the factions and interested parties could sign on to the ticket wholeheartedly without fear that their own presidential plans would be impeded by an incumbent or failed veep candidate (a la Lieberman).
So that would clearly eliminate Edwards from the running. As for the others, they all have their pluses and minuses, but they probably meet the "won't run for president in 2008 or 2012 criteria", but what do I know. The Kerry campaign is now going through the vetting process, doing invasive and exhaustive background checks, running the names through focus groups, and polling the shit out the potential veeps.
I think that criticism of Edwards - that he has other ambitions - applies to Clark as well. I think the Clintonites may want to hold him back to hedge their bets in 2008, though maybe Hilary makes that moot. His strength for Kerry, besides the national security cred, is his fundraising appeal. He can squeeze money out of the NY socialite and Hollywood liberal crowds like nobody's business. Still, I have my doubts that Kerry wants him on the ticket, as I do with Edwards. I think he DOES want Graham on the ticket at least as much as Gephardt, but Graham doesn't make as much sense as some of the other guys.
My bet? The top two most likely choices right now are Gephardt and Vilsack. There are still some left-field choices out there that Kerry may pick to the surprise of many, including Mary Landreiu of LA (my favorite), Nancy Kaptur of OH, Mark Warner of VA, Evan Bayh of IN, and a few others. But, I think that Bloomberg may be onto something with this short list. Sounds about right to me, in terms of what Kerry might be thinking.
I'm guessing Kerry announces right after the first week of June, one way or the other.
Thoughts? Questions? Comments?
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05-12-2004 08:59 PM
