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Paint CHiPs
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Eliot Spitzer to Run for NY Gov; It's Official



quote:
ALBANY -- New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, whose investigations of white-collar crime have shaken the nation's financial institutions, said Tuesday he will run for governor in 2006.

Long known to be interested in the job, it was the first time the high-profile attorney general has said he will definitely run.

"The state is at a point of crisis," the Democrat told The Associated Press. "We are bleeding jobs. We need reform in the process of government."

In his two terms, Spitzer has won national and international attention with groundbreaking investigations of Wall Street investment houses, mutual fund managers and, most recently, the insurance industry.

Republican Gov. George Pataki has not yet said if he will seek a fourth, four-year term in 2006, although new state GOP Chairman Stephen Minarik said Friday that he expected the governor would run for re-election.


NY is infamous for its three term curse. Governors just can't seem to make it past three terms. Cuomo and D'Amato being the most recent to fall.

Pataki is not particularly popular in the state, even among Republicans (the GOP-controlled Senate just overrode his veto on the minimum wage bill there). And I'm not even convinced he will indeed run. He seems to (understandably) not want to get embroiled in a fight with Spitzer for the governorship when he has his sights on higher things anyway (either for Senate against Hillary in 06, or full on for President in 08, something I consider a strong possibility). MstrG would probably have some insights into that. And, not meaning to make Gulliani a constant refrain (but he's such a wild card it's hard not to), there has also been talk that he might run for Governor if Pataki decides not to. Presumably while he is also running for Senate and the Presidency. Though even if he did, I'd be hesitant to assume he'd win. Spitzer would be tough to beat for anybody. Schumer's already cleared the way for him within the Democratic party; if Pataki chooses not to run and Rudy doesn't step in, Spitzer could concievably seal up the race two years early.

Actually, NY is going to be (aside from Santorum's seat here in PA) the state to watch in 06. A Senate election against a Democrat everybody would LOVE to see lose, the second highest profile governorship that's been in Republican hands for a long time, and NYC mayor seat coming back up (Gifford Miller, the Democratic City Council chief, is already campaigning for the job, a central theme being that NYC should be in Democratic hands just on general principle, though Bloomberg, weirdly, is still fairly popular). NY is also an interesting test case because it's so solidly a blue state, and yet Bush made some of his best popular vote gains here, and between him and the Republicans in charge on 9-11, they've got a lot of vestigial good will to burn up, though how much that bleeds to other GOP candidates remains to be seen, and the GOP party structure in NY is pretty much a joke. But, for a lot of reasons, for us political junkies, most eyes are quickly starting to turn to New York for the midterm fix.

Back to the governorship though, If anybody is worried that the Democrats will be forever shut out of national politics, take a look at Eliot Spitzer. He'll be coming of age nationally at about the same time Barack Obama will (12, 16), and is every bit as dynamic. He's not quite the speaker Obama is, but he's got the biography and the tough on crime cred that any national candidate would envy; he's like a Democratic Elliot Ness (Untouchables, for you limeys), and his approach (fighting for the common man sort of thing) has a lot of blue collar appeal.

His website's pretty good too.

Here is his statement today on his blog:

quote:

I’m Running for Governor

Almost a year ago, I said I would consider running for Governor of New York and that I would make a decision before the end of the year. I've thought about it carefully. I've consulted many people across New York. I've talked to my wife and family, and I've reached a conclusion.

I will run for Governor of New York in 2006. I believe I can be a very good governor and I think the people of this state will be pleased by the job I do as governor.

I start with the proposition that I'm going to fight for all New Yorkers and do my best for all the people of this state, regardless of their position or party, or color or creed.

One of the keys to solving the problems of New York is to make state government more responsive and accountable. Right now, New York government is all about partisanship and gridlock. We're not doing the things we need to do to generate good paying jobs, safe neighborhoods and excellent schools. The system is broken. The state is facing a crisis.

I want to fix what's broken. It's what I do best. I bring people together whether they like it or not and we tackle complex problems – not with band-aid solutions, but with major reform and real change. We did it in the financial industry and other sectors and we can do it in government. I'll bring new energy and resolve to the task of transforming state government and turning around the state economy.

Today, I am confirming that I intend to run for governor and I have authorized my supporters outside the government to begin preparations for a campaign.

The people of New York have been wonderfully supportive of my work so far – and I will be asking for your continued support as we move forward to 2006. The most important thing I can do during the next year is to listen. I ask for your continued feed-back through www.spitzer2006.com and as I travel around New York. Let's discuss the direction of our state and the things we can do to strengthen it.

I believe that people who want change are a very positive and powerful force. I am depending on you and millions of New Yorkers who understand New York's history and tradition as a place of unparalleled opportunity. We believe that New York can be great. We believe that we can change things. That's what my candidacy for governor will be all about.

Eliot


"I want to fix what's broken. It's what I do best. I bring people together whether they like it or not" pretty much sums up the kind of person and candidate Spitzer is. He's every bit the rising star that Obama is, and if he takes the Governorship, it'll be hard to hold him back from the White House.

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Old Post 12-07-2004 05:37 PM
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CHiPsJr
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Spitzer's a blue chipper; I supported him for the VP during the last election, and I have to think he's a favorite for the Governorship even should Pataki run.

His record on Wall Street malfeasance is particularly useful to the Dems; it's a terrific wedge issue. NOT just more generic "people against the powerful" crap but a strong, direct attack on an area where the Republicans have completely failed to maintain the free flow of information that is requisite to a functioning free market. The Dems really ought to make that sort of aggressive pro-market centrism a centerpiece of their campaign strategy.

Or, alternatively, they could go with the Moore left and the euro-wannabees, whine about stolen elections, and spend another couple of decades in the wilderness.

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Old Post 12-07-2004 05:55 PM
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Trenchant_Troll
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Well, no one will be able to accuse Spitzer of being in the pocket of big business, that's for sure.

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Old Post 12-07-2004 05:58 PM
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nymbus
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Around the time of the convention there was quite a lot of talk about Pataki running for President, but I just can't believe he'd even attempt it. Have you heard him speak? Honestly, the only time I have was at the convention, but it was so painful it was all I could do to avoid shoving toothpicks in my eardrums. Picture Al Gore giving a speech written by a high school history teacher, delivered under water and played in slow motion. Good god. How he got to be governor is just beyond me.

I think he'll run again for governor. He may not win, but he's probably too dumb to realize it.

And NY is only a solid blue state because of NYC. If you look at just upstate, it's fairly balanced. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pa...Y/P/00/map.html

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Old Post 12-07-2004 06:05 PM
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Trenchant_Troll
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quote:
Originally posted by CHiPsJr
Or, alternatively, they could go with the Moore left and the euro-wannabees, whine about stolen elections, and spend another couple of decades in the wilderness.

Attachment: thorton.jpg
This has been downloaded 136 time(s).

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Old Post 12-07-2004 06:10 PM
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Smug Git
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quote:
Originally posted by nymbus
And NY is only a solid blue state because of NYC. If you look at just upstate, it's fairly balanced. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pa...Y/P/00/map.html


But NYC dominates NY so far as popualtion is concerned, so you'd expect the political preferences of the NYC to wipe out the rest of the state. PA is basically all about Philly and Pittsburgh and their suburbs, too (in fact, the suburbs are the key, apparently). 300 odd miles of Pennsyltuckey don't really count.

More reason that states should divide the votes that they send to the EC, if you ask me.

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Old Post 12-07-2004 06:32 PM
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nymbus
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quote:
Originally posted by Smug Git
But NYC dominates NY so far as popualtion is concerned, so you'd expect the political preferences of the NYC to wipe out the rest of the state.


Yeah, I get that, but I mentioned it in reference to Paint's comment that "NY is also an interesting test case because it's so solidly a blue state, and yet Bush made some of his best popular vote gains here..." That half of the state is fairly evenly divided goes a long way to explaining why this very blue (overall) state has so many Republicans in power.

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Old Post 12-07-2004 06:58 PM
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Smug Git
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Is it not really that the republicans in NY are pretty close to the democrats, on the political scale, that means that they can do quite well? Giuliani is a pro-abortion, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control guy (who is popular in the whole of the state, it seems) and Bloomberg IS a democrat who knew he wouldn't win their primary, Pataki is pretty lefty too (although a loyal fundraising republican). Same thing goes for California, really; Ahnuld is hardly a typical republican (pro abortion again, for a start). And hasn't Pataki's success been in part due to some truly inept democrat challenges (I seem to remember that that was certainly the case last time he ran; his opponent was appalling).

Also, when paint was talking about NY being a 'solidly blue state', was he not talking about its colouration in national politics anyhow?

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Old Post 12-07-2004 07:14 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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quote:
Originally posted by nymbus
Yeah, I get that, but I mentioned it in reference to Paint's comment that "NY is also an interesting test case because it's so solidly a blue state, and yet Bush made some of his best popular vote gains here..." That half of the state is fairly evenly divided goes a long way to explaining why this very blue (overall) state has so many Republicans in power.


I wasn't just talking about upstate. Republicans made their biggest gains this year in places like Long Island, and if they start voting that way in state races, that could prove very helpful to the state GOP, not because they'll win NYC anytime soon, but it helps crack it a bit anyway. The registration advantage is so ridiculous for Dems in terms of the whole state, and the Republicans are already so liberal (again, I'll repeat, the GOP Senate there overrode Pataki's veto on a MINIMUM WAGE increase), that if toeholds downstate start opening up, it's something worth considering for them.

I'm still not sure that Pataki won't run for President, though I agree that he's pretty much an empty suit. I'd prefer Bloomberg to Pataki.

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Old Post 12-07-2004 08:06 PM
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Smug Git
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I guess that it depends on how much of the increase was a 11/9 thing, that might not necessarily lead to republican votes next time. On the other hand, whyever you vote for a particular party, if the term goes OK (according to you) I suppose that any barriers against voting for that party have at worst been weakened.

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Old Post 12-07-2004 08:12 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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WOOT!!! POOOOOLLLLLLSSSSS!!!!!

quote:

Secretary of State Colin Powell beats Attorney General Eliot Spitzer 47 - 42 percent in an early look at the 2006 New York governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Spitzer tops Republican Gov. George Pataki 50 - 38 percent if the two face off, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

In these early matchups, there is some shift of black and independent voters from Spitzer if he runs against Pataki, to Powell, if he faces Spitzer.

If Gov. Pataki decides to run for U.S. Senate in 2006, he would lose to incumbent Hillary Clinton 58 - 36 percent. Sen. Clinton holds off Powell by a narrow 49 - 44 percent margin.

"It's hypothetical and way in the future, but if Colin Powell, a New Yorker who soon will be looking for a job, decides to run for Governor, he'll give Eliot Spitzer a run for his money," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"When Powell goes up against another superstar, Sen. Hillary Clinton, he comes up a bit short.

"Pataki loses to Spitzer. If the Governor decides to try his hand in Washington instead, Sen. Clinton thumps him by more than 20 points."

New York State voters give Pataki a 44 - 41 approval rating, compared to 61 - 15 percent for Spitzer.

Approval for the state's two Senators is soaring as Sen. Charles Schumer gets a 69 - 16 percent thumbs up and Clinton gets 63 - 26 percent, tying the highest ratings for either official.

President George W. Bush gets a negative 39 - 56 percent approval rating, among his lowest ever in New York.

Looking to the 2008 presidential election, New Yorkers say 54 - 40 percent that they do not want Sen. Clinton to go for the White House. Among Democrats, 57 percent want Clinton to run for President. Women are split 46 - 46 percent. Voters split 47 - 49 percent over whether they want Rudolph Giuliani to run. Among Republicans, 78 percent say go for it.

In a hypothetical presidential matchup, Clinton gets 46 percent to 45 percent for Giuliani, a tie.

"It's early, but New Yorkers aren't eager to see their favorite son, Rudy Giuliani, or favorite daughter, Hillary Clinton, throw their Yankee hats into the presidential ring. Their own parties would love to pick them, especially Republican Rudy-rooters," Carroll said.

From December 3 - 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,186 New York State registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.



I haven't been including Powell in any of this, as I really do think he's going to be content just limping off the sunset. Clearly if he throws his hat in any ring he'll be a contender.

Pataki gets THUMPED by Spitzer for NY Gov, which seems the most likely matchup. Spitzer looks pretty good this far out.

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Old Post 12-08-2004 08:52 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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Also worth noting that among NEW YORK DEMOCRATS only 57% want Hillary to run. That number's not going to be any better in, say, Iowa.

Like I said, I don't think she'll make it out of the primary.

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Old Post 12-08-2004 08:55 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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quote:

Secretary of State Colin Powell said Thursday he won't seek political office, dismissing suggestions that he run for governor or senator in New York.

Asked about a poll that shows him favored in a hypothetical matchup for the governor's race, Powell said, "I'm not going to be running for office even in my beloved home state of New York, as flattering as that poll might be." [...]

"I don't think I've ever said I wouldn't be interested in public life again," Powell said. "I think I've repeatedly said over the course of nine-plus years that I've had no interest in political office."


Source.

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Old Post 12-09-2004 09:21 PM
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Aydin
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I was thinking "Colin Powell is hardly a New Yorker anymore," but then I thought of Hillary.

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Old Post 12-09-2004 09:52 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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quote:

Gov. George E. Pataki has shaken up his political operation, severing ties between two of his longest-serving political consultants and the state Republican committee, sending a message that he is preparing for another political run, even if he is not yet saying which office he will seek.

Mr. Pataki, who has long repeatedly defied political expectations to become the longest-serving governor in the nation, has recently been suffering from what some supporters described as an aimless, out-of-touch political operation.

There has been a growing sense, even among Republicans, that the Pataki administration is adrift and that the governor's diminished political capital, or at least the appearance of it, is undermining his ability to govern. As Democrats appear increasingly unified behind Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who has announced that he will run for governor in 2006, Republicans have fretted that their prospects of holding onto the governor's post are dwindling.


So get ready people, Pataki is running. For something. We don't know what yet.

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Old Post 12-15-2004 09:00 PM
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Rokkr
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The farther you get from NYC, the more NY state is identical to Indiana.

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Old Post 12-17-2004 08:11 AM
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Aydin
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Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and Guatemala fused at the Southern tip, and the rest of Pennsyltucky upstate.

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Old Post 12-17-2004 04:11 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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Pataki is out.

quote:

ALBANY, July 26 - Gov. George E. Pataki told a group of supporters and aides on Tuesday night that he would not seek a fourth term as governor after abruptly summoning them to the governor's mansion, according to two people who attended the meeting.

Mr. Pataki's announcement came as polls showed him trailing Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, the Democrat who hopes to succeed him as governor. But it sets the stage for Mr. Pataki to explore a possible run for president in 2008.

Mr. Pataki's decision is the beginning of the end of his three-term reign, which began when he toppled his predecessor, Mario M. Cuomo. Mr. Pataki, a Republican, took office nearly 11 years ago pledging to remake a state government run by Democrats for an entire generation.

His announcement ends months of speculation about his political future in New York, but leaves the state's Republican Party pressed to find a candidate to replace him. Republicans have mentioned Secretary of State Randy A. Daniels and Tom Golisano, a Rochester billionaire who spent millions of dollars attacking Mr. Pataki when he ran for governor in 2002 as an Independent, among others, as possible candidates.


Doesn't really matter. He was going to lose badly anyway, he just saved himself the embarrassment. A clear path for Spitzer now. The GOP will find somebody obligatory to run against him and whoever it is will be crushed.

Also, they're still trying to find someone to challenge Hillary.

quote:

On Thursday, local party leaders in Buffalo and western New York are to meet with four possible challengers to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton next year: William A. Brenner, a lawyer; Edward F. Cox, a lawyer and son-in-law of President Richard M. Nixon; Westchester County's departing district attorney, Jeanine Pirro; and the former mayor of Yonkers, John Spencer.

Ms. Pirro has said she is still deciding whether to run for Senate, state attorney general or governor in the event that Mr. Pataki chose not to run.

Other candidates who plan to attend, the two Republican officials said, are Secretary of State Randy A. Daniels and Assemblyman Patrick Manning, two possible candidates for governor. John Faso, a former state assemblyman who narrowly lost his race to be state comptroller in 2002, will also attend. One Republican also said that Rick Lazio, the former congressman who lost to Ms. Clinton in 2000, might attend.

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Old Post 07-27-2005 02:49 PM
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loser
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quote:
Originally posted by Rokkr
The farther you get from NYC, the more NY state is identical to Indiana.


Having spent a good deal of time in both places I'd have to say that this statement is dead on. It is actually kind of creepy how much South Bend resembles Buffalo.

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Old Post 07-27-2005 07:45 PM
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Paint CHiPs
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Heh.

1. Pataki: Eyes on White House.

2. Santorum: Leaving Open the Chance of a White House Bid.

Well, losing a presidential bid looks better on the resume than losing the seat you already have. Probably puts you in a better position to enter the private sector as a lobbyist or lecturer, too.

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Old Post 07-29-2005 10:28 AM
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