Registered: Jan 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 13002

Way back before the war I said installing democracy in Iraq was a very very bad thing. I said it would come back and bite us on the arse so fucking hard that I even refused to believe that we would actually do it. But it is now looking increasingly like the White House actually meant it, and as a result we are about to witness the biggest and most catastrophic setback in the so-called War on Terror thus far.

The policy wonks of the Pentagon i.e. Wolfawitz et al all reckoned that by giving Iraq democracy it would create a domino effect in the region of "freedom loving people" rising up aghainst the mad mullahs. Of course, only the most mnaive and ignorant dickhead would believe such a thing to be the case but still it was argued very publicly by the administration and consequently by those that supported the administration's on the many internet forums that like to have there own microcosm political debating arenas. When the domino effect didn't come the policy wonks (supported by the "Mr Thicky Brigade") shifted the goalposts and suggested it might come if Syria and Iran were forced to vote by the barrel of the gun as well. Eveidence enouigh I'd say that the concept of "joined-up thinking" most certainly doesn't exist in the US Adminstration's foreign policy formulation team (obviously it doesn't exist in the groupie fan club online either because all they do is follow like good little sheep, warts and all, lock fucking stock).

So there we are, at the nearing of the Iraqi elections, and everyone is hoping that Mr Allawi is elected. Some are hoping he's elected because they are to stupid to realise that he is a vicious cunt and think he is going to be some sort of standard bearer for democracy in the region. Others want him to be elected because he will make a good compliant leader to western needs just like Saddam Hussein used to be, and like Saddam was to the Soviets, Allawi will be to the Iranians in the war on terror that we engage in. Sadly though, it ain't going to happen. Why? Because when the US said they wanted democracy in Iraq they appear to have actually meant it. There will be no Ukraine style vote rigging to ensure Allawi wins. No. It looks incresinlgy likely that the US will actually let the Iraqis choose who governs them, and one look at the situation on the ground and you see that come Feb 1st the region is going to be totally fucked by this idiotic policy from the US. Why will it be fucked? Because the Shia are going to dominate, and they are going to dominate from Tehran. Come Feb 1st Iraq will be a sovereign nation in all but name. In reality it will just be a client state of Iran and will be the single biggest geogrpahical islamic state in the world and it will be full of people who really really fucking hate us. A state totally galvanised against the US and the coaltion all because the US were stupid enough to actually give Iraq democracy. A demcratically legitimate Islamic state. Fan-fucking-tastic I don't think! I was under the impression we were supposed to be fighting a war against these people not giving them ever larger and more dmeocratically legitimate powerbases?

Of course the response from the policy wonk and the knuckle-dragging fan club will be "Regime Change in Iran!!!! Giv'em democracy and freedon and it will all be better!" Yes... hello... that what's got us into this fucking mess i the first place you stupid cunts. And you know why this is happening? It;s all because America won't step up to the plate and accept her responsibilities, she is obsessed with the beleif that by giving people democracy they will be better and it will all be fluffy and happy, a people totally dominated by a naive and puerile belief that democracy and freedom are emacipatory concept. They're not. The reason it worked in America was because you were British and had British ideas ergo liberal philosophy, already instilled in your founders cultural make-up.

2005 is going to begin badly for the War on Terror, without a doubt. And it will all be of our own doing, not the enemies.

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Registered: May 2002
Location:
Posts: 8650

So, in conclusion, the American people are cowardly and reluctant, but in an aggressively moronic way, and, furthermore, any success we Americans have enjoyed in the past was simply a latent (but fortunate) byproduct of our British ancestory?

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Registered: Aug 2001
Location: is futile
Posts: 4983

quote:

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Originally posted by mmmtravis
So, in conclusion, the American people are cowardly and reluctant, but in an aggressively moronic way, and, furthermore, any success we Americans have enjoyed in the past was simply a latent (but fortunate) byproduct of our British ancestory?

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A succinct summation I would think

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Registered: Aug 2000
Location:
Posts: 7680

Here's something I think is neat.
Al'qeda Islamofascists are supposed to be Shiite extremeists.
We're supposed to be fighting the terrorists in Iraq so that we don't fight them in american streets, yes?
So the insurgents are supposed to be the Islamofascists which justifies the whole excercise we're doing.
Except the insurgents seem to be Iraqi in origin, not foreign terrorists. And they're Sunni Baathists, not Shiite.

So, what the fuck are we fighting again?
Terror. It's a War on Terror. We can fight anybody as long as we make up a reason to be scared.
I think it's going to be a very good year for Terror.

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Registered: Jan 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 13002

travis, I didn;t say the whole american people were reluctant cowards or morons, I said some of them are. I was also trying to make the point that believing democracy is emancipatory in nature is fucking dumb and by Feb 1st we'll have evidencethat attests to that as we help the enemy consolidate it's powerbase through democratic means.

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Registered: Aug 2001
Location: Hilbert Space
Posts: 35561

This election is to elect the people who will produce a constitution. If only partial elections are allowed, because of violence in the Sunni region or because Sunnis fear reprisals if they do vote, the Sunnis will not get to vote for the people who write the constitution. How is that going to encourage Sunnis to accept the constitution, if it comes to pass? That was the concern that Joe Biden raised on 'Meet the Press' last week. Moving the election date, after making so many definite statements about how it can't be changed, would be to hand a huge victory to the insurgents, however.

The leader of the Sistani-supported Shia coalition-style group is the clerical leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (which we used to consider to be a terrorist group based out of Tehran). Al Sadr may field proxies that win up to 10% of the votes. So it could go pretty bad, although I would have thought that the initial noises that the government make might be more like what we want to hear (that is characteristic of arab politics).

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Registered: Jul 2001
Location: Norfolk, VA
Posts: 4678

What was the situation in Iraq pre-Gulf War I as far as religious extremists and so forth?

I got the impression that they were fairly secular and that fundamentalism has arisen in the face of hardship like it always does. I think everyone was planning (hoping, perhaps) that with capital flowing back into Iraq and alleviating some of their troubles, then the extremism would go away. I think the jury's still out on that, but certainly it's not too hard to keep a fundamentalist organization going so long as you have an enemy to focus on.

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Registered: Aug 2001
Location: Hilbert Space
Posts: 35561

Saddam was brutally secular, brooking little religious interference. Iraqi people are relatively devout (particularly by Western standards, even American standards), I gather. I think that the opression of the Shia was, in part, opposed by assertions of religious identity, which have risen since Saddam was toppled.

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Registered: Jan 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 13002

quote:

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Originally posted by squee
snip

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Registered: Dec 2002
Location:
Posts: 3063

"Terror. It's a War on Terror. We can fight anybody as long as we make up a reason to be scared."

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