Registered: Jul 2001
Location: Norfolk, VA
Posts: 4691

...(at least, a 100 level Western Civ course) is that the same cycle repeats over and over again: civilizations rise, they prosper, eventually they get...ennervated, lazy, whatever. They become easy prey for another new, vital proto-empire. So Philip conquers the Greeks, Alexander stomps the Persians, the Romans end up in control of the Mediterranean, etc.

At the height of each civilization, what stands out to me is that they have really good managers and leaders. So look at Athens under Solon, or Rome under Marcus Aurelius. They were able to manage their holdings and actually do some good. Compare that to Europe during the Middle Ages--no strong government means no civilization to speak of.

I wonder if this cycle is still going on, and if it's going to happen to America. I wonder how it's going to go down, if it will be like cell death--violent necrosis, or some sort of imposed apoptosis. You?

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Registered: Apr 2004
Location: Insatiation
Posts: 9026

It will be death by apathy and ignorance.
It's already started with the advent of ID and the death of work ethic.

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Registered: Feb 2004
Location: in colorado somewhere!
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Damm. America generally lazy,dawgs.
Were all gonna die.

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Registered: Jul 2000
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so long as all the war and downfall shit happens after i'm dead and gone. i'm too lazy for that stuff.

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Registered: Dec 2002
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quote:

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Originally posted by morgana
so long as all the war and downfall shit happens after i'm dead and gone. i'm too lazy for that stuff.

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Registered: Sep 2000
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7504

I'm quite concerned about this phenomenon at the moment. There is ample evidence of it throughout the west, and most of the alternatives are a lot uglier.

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Registered: Jul 2001
Location: Norfolk, VA
Posts: 4691

If America is destined to fall, I wonder if it's likely to be through being taken over (unlikely) or just falling in prominence to someone else's rising star.

So long as the ancient empires kept up a vigorous economy and growth, they lived. It seems like we are currently cannibalizing everyone else on the planet while at the same time switching to an economy where we only sell and buy shit (rather than actually making anything ourselves).

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Registered: Dec 2002
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Every nation in history has risen, then fallen. Some few have risen again. America has gone up like a mortar shell from the launch tube, and shows every sign of having reached apogee and started it's accelerating descent.

You can ride the descent to it's pre-ordained explosive ending, or you can get the hell out of the path. Entirely your free choice.

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Registered: Nov 2003
Location: North Myrtle Beach SC
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quote:

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new, vital proto-empire

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Registered: Feb 2004
Location: in colorado somewhere!
Posts: 26136

I better hit all the buffets while I still can.

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Registered: Jan 2003
Location: mediocre apartment
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That's a pretty commenly held understanding, squee, especially the bit about good administrators as leaders at the height of these civilizations.

What's also interesting is to see what the rulers were like when the descent began, and when it accelerated, and what sort of activities the empires were engaged in at the time (colonialism? genocide?).

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Registered: Jan 2006
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Many new features of how civilisation works and is managed and affects other civilizations might have changed how your observed pattern works if indeed it is a pattern and not a series of unrelated downfalls precipitated by entirely different kinds of societal ill.

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Registered: Apr 2004
Location: Den
Posts: 11291

Someone naive has to say this: Isn't it different now? There are previously unseen variables, mostly of the technological and cultural kind.

But violent necrosis just sounds to cool not to engender. Maybe the laziness is just acceptance.

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Registered: Oct 2001
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it should be noted that Rome lasted well over a millenium and a half, which ain't a bad run.

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Registered: Oct 2001
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you might also notice that in some form it is still with us, as the person who posted this thread is substantially under its authority. Politically it lasted until 1453, but its effects are with us to this day in the realms of law, engineering and any number of other facets of our lives. I don't know if I'd call that a failed society.

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Registered: Aug 2001
Location: Hilbert Space
Posts: 35658

You might have had a different opinion if you were a Roman getting overrun by the forces of barbarism/whatever. But 'failed' is to be taken relative to aims; to the extent that Roman society was supposed to last forever, it failed, but that's a pretty naive aim, I think. Although I would say that if you wish to trace the effects of Roman empire through to current day, you could do that sort of thing for many other societies, too. In fact, even identifying the various periods of the Roman Empire as being parts of the same whole isn't uncontentious, as are all identity assignations between temporally seperated instances.

On the main topic, I'd say that, of course, the US will lose its current pre-eminence at some stage, and some other nation or nations will become more powerful and more wealthy than it. That's a failure if you view the task of America remaining pre-eminent for ever as a societal imperative, but if you hold that view, I think that you are aiming too high. A more realistic target for what can be handed to the Americans of the future is not to fuck things up for them, I would say, rather than trying to hand them a permanent mandate to Rule the World. Then, if (when) they fuck things up for themselves, or are naturally displaced by another nation, at least it won't be because the Americans of the present mortgaged the future for jam today.

Losing prominence doesn't have to be a catastrophic thing, anyhow; it can be slow. It may not even be as a result of falling wealth or capability on an absolute scale, either, but rather, the result of being overtaken. Anyone who can't cope with that idea is perhaps either deluded or else headed for a lifetime of disappointments.

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Registered: Oct 2001
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quote:

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Originally posted by Smug Git
You might have had a different opinion if you were a Roman getting overrun by the forces of barbarism/whatever. But 'failed' is to be taken relative to aims; to the extent that Roman society was supposed to last forever, it failed, but that's a pretty naive aim, I think. Although I would say that if you wish to trace the effects of Roman empire through to current day, you could do that sort of thing for many other societies, too. In fact, even identifying the various periods of the Roman Empire as being parts of the same whole isn't uncontentious, as are all identity assignations between temporally seperated instances.

...

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Registered: Apr 2005
Location: wookin pa nub
Posts: 10792

The US is falling to Mexico, one swimmer at a time.

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Registered: Aug 2001
Location: Hilbert Space
Posts: 35658

The extent to which the Romans saw themselves as an unbroken line might not be that relevant. People like to flatter themselves with cultural longevity and continuity whether or not it's true (it happens in Britain, too).

Anyone societal aim of 'let's last forever' is doomed to fail. Change is inevitable.

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Registered: Oct 2001
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I'm sure some Greek thought of that idea first.

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