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Novak's not always right by any means, but he has some decent sources withing the GOP, it seems to me.

Giuliani is obviously pretty electable, but will the GOP nominate him? He's a weasel and has taken pro-abortion, pro gun-control and pro-gay stances. Yes, he can do what Novak says and change at least one of those stances, but will people believe him? His great success was improving NYC but his great appeal is based more on his 11/9 performance, which was more of a great PR appearance than anything substantive.

His gun control stance he can at least moderate to saying that it is about 'local issues', although that won't reassure the NRA. In general, though, he wouldn't even be to the right end of the Democrats on some issues.

quote:

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RUDY FOR PRESIDENT?

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Well-connected public figures report that they have been told recently by Rudolph Giuliani that, as of now, he intends to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.

The former mayor of New York was on top of last month's national Gallup poll measuring presidential preferences by registered Republicans, with 29 percent. Sen. John McCain's 24 percent was second, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich third at 8 percent. National polls all year have shown Giuliani running either first or second to McCain, with the rest of the presidential possibilities far behind.

Republican insiders respond to these numbers by saying rank-and-file GOP voters will abandon Giuliani once they realize his position on abortion, gay rights and gun control. Party strategists calculate that if he actually runs, he must change on at least one of these issues.

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Last edited by Smug Git on 07-08-2006 at 09:18 PM

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I don't see gay rights going.

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Gays would have a far better chance of achieving the rights they seek if they dispense with the term "marriage" (which is a lightning rod for religious right) and focus on seeking a civil union/contract or whatever. The fact is that religious unioin should not be what the state(s) recognizes in any case, but rather a binding legal agreement of the sharing of resources, rights, etc. The gay rights movement in its zeal to fly in the face of those who oppose them fail by trying to reach for the brass ring (pardon the pun) before they have even climbed aboard the merry-go-round. If they were to take a different tack and seek a civil contract and leave marriage as a matter of the respective religion, they would have a far greater chance of success. I would add that flamboyant gay pride parades don't bolster there cause any either. Freak shows may attract attention, but they rarely attract acceptance.

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You have given this issue a lot of thought, haven't you?

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He would be the best Republican vote I think cause he can like go to Iraq and turn shit around like he did in NYC..yea.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Coincidence
You have given this issue a lot of thought, haven't you?

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There's no uniform across-the-board campaign on the part of the gay community; different sections of it want different things. The women's suffrage and anti-slavery movements had a mix of objectives, too, and they both got what they wanted in the end, so I don't think that anything's ruled out or in, although one suspects that they'll win in the end just because of demographics.

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I don't buy your demographics idea at all, Smug.

If, as current science suggests, sexual orientation is an inborn trait, and current statistics show something like 8% of the population is committedly homosexual, then demographics will work against them in an aging population. Homosexual lifestyles, whether they be male or female homosexuals, result in significantly higher mortality rates amongst them as compared to their heterosexual age cohort group.

Consequently, their political power base shrinks as a proportion of the total in any aging population.

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Demographics as in that the opposition to gay marriage is higher amongst older people than younger people, I meant. Of course, as people get older, some do get more socially conservative, but I don't think that they'll be as socially conservative as the current older generations.

I agree that the gay community themselves aren't going to swing the debate with their votes (although their political activity will have a role to play).

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He'll win because he was in on 9-11.

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Giuliani is a weasel, but what I don't know is whether there are skeletons in the closet so far as his NY Mayorship is concerned. Kerik was a crook and was promoted from chauffer to police chief by Giuliani; bad luck?

I haven't heard anything about corruption on Giuliani's part, I should add; I'm just wondering what's in his past that will come out during campaigning.

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Novak is more like the In Touch of the political world. He does have much better sources than, say, Drudge, though, and he's often used by powerplayers as a conduit through which to float stuff.

Rudy's people (both overtly and covertly) have been making some noise in recent weeks, running his campaign bid up the flagpole as it were. I doubt he's made a decision himself yet, but the rumblings certainly indicate he hasn't ruled it out, and is in fact starting to actively get his shit together for it. One has to assume Rudy would be as competitive as anybody, including McCain. It will be interesting if the field is, say, McCain, Rudy, and Allen. Because first of all, McCain will get the short end of that in terms of campaigning--he'll be the guy they all bloody up. Second of all, though, I don't think that either McCain or Rudy are too liberal to win, necessarily, but will certainly be too liberal to win without problems, and there will certainly be a third choice in there to run up the social con vote (if not Allen, somebody)--the ultimate affect of that, whether a McCain-Rudy split could elect that third option, or if that third option would just suck out the social con factor and more moderate elements would decide between McCain-Rudy, is hard to say. It would be an interesting campaign, though. One personal quip--if you think it's annoying when certain conservative elements deify Bush Jr, just wait until Rudy runs.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Smug Git
Giuliani is a weasel, but what I don't know is whether there are skeletons in the closet so far as his NY Mayorship is concerned. Kerik was a crook and was promoted from chauffer to police chief by Giuliani; bad luck?

I haven't heard anything about corruption on Giuliani's part, I should add; I'm just wondering what's in his past that will come out during campaigning.

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Giuliani reverence annoys the shit out of me already. It also seems to float over his real achievements in NYC and focus on a bit of PR turned on for the cameras after the events of 11/9/2001.

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I actually like Giuliani not so much because of his 9-11 legacy, but because of the "real' achievements you speak of, namely helping to turn NYC from something of a shithole into the vibrant city it is today. He didn't do it alone, but he played a big part, despite his detractors along the way.

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Giuliani will put states like Utah on quite the fenceline. While Utah is pretty much a straight-party Republican state and loves their guns, they'll be torn with his stance on abortion and gay marriage. They may also have to choose between a Republican man and a Democratic woman. I think they'd rather kill babies than have a woman running the country.

I think the Utah delegates are hoping for ol' Mitt Romney. After all, he's the one baby Jesus picked to run the Olympics in 2002.

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Yea but Giuliani is better known simply for his NAME.
I'm a Democrat,but if Giuliani runs for presidency,I would be worried.

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If you are a Democrat, you should be worried period.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Trenchant_Troll
If you are a Democrat, you should be worried period.

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Last edited by SimpleSimon on 07-10-2006 at 04:02 AM

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Sometimes it's better just to be an Illegal Alien.

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quote:

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Originally posted by SimpleSimon
Reakistically, if you are a citizen/resident of this country, you should be worried.

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If you're a Democrat, and Giuliani wins the Republican nomination, you shouldn't be worried at all; whoever wins the election will be a Liberal (whatever they play to get into office).

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